Wednesday, May 31, 2006

why would someone trade leadership of Wall Street's premier firm for a bit role in a dying regime?

Excellent analysis in the WSJ regarding the recent appointment of Paulson (CEO of Goldman Sachs) to the position of Treasury Secretary

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. boss Hank Paulson already has one of the best jobs in the world. So why would he trade leadership of Wall Street's premier firm for a bit role in a dying regime?

Under President Bush, the Treasury secretary's job has been gutted like a bass at a fish market. Mr. Paulson's predecessors failed to influence policy meaningfully. Deficits widened and the dollar dropped. Alan Greenspan's flooding of the market with liquidity really kept the economy moving. What's Mr. Paulson thinking?

In one respect, his departure from Wall Street looks timely. It is hard to imagine a better economic scenario: interest rates are still low by historical standards; companies, private-equity firms and hedge funds are awash in cash; mergers and acquisitions are at a cyclical peak; and securities trading volumes are booming.

Goldman recently reported mind-blowing profits. The stock, while off its highs, is up 60% in a year and has tripled since Mr. Paulson led its initial public offering. So leaving now with about $500 million of stock under his belt seems sensible. That's especially true given the dominance of the trading businesses to Goldman's bottom line. It's only natural that a former client banker like Mr. Paulson would now pass the baton to Lloyd Blankfein and his merry traders.

But it would be disingenuous to view this as a simple trade at the top. Patriotism undoubtedly plays a role. And Mr. Paulson must have felt some obligation given Goldman's emerging role as a sort of "Team America," supplying the human capital to sort out the nation's fiscal problems. Moreover, one suspects Mr. Paulson felt there is plenty of work needed to be done to prepare America's finances for more difficult times.

The dollar's recent decline reflects eroding confidence that America can keep spending profligately without consequence. With a greater percentage of government debt held by foreigners, it is imperative the nation has an articulate and persuasive chief financial officer. That Mr. Paulson is a known quantity in Beijing, and in other capitals that increasingly influence America's financial destiny, only adds to his attraction as Treasury boss.

For the sake of the country, and its creditors, one can only hope the president lets his third Treasury boss do the job.

Friday, May 26, 2006

Alwaleed: The Man With the Midas Touch


Good interview in Arab News with Prince Alwaleed. He talks about his group, Kindom Holding, and the recent turmoil in the markets in Saudi Arabia. He attributes a lot of his success to his ability to delegate and having strong quality staff.

Monday, May 22, 2006

Saudis want Riyadh to be a financial hub GCC Insights - Zawya


Saudi wants to create a competitor to DIFC, Bahrain & Qatar Financial Center.

Russian Stocks Tumble (WSJ)

In conversation with an economist from one of the leading investment banks - he thinks that the current correction in Global Stock markets (russia is down by 11% today) and commodity prices (copper is down by more than $1000 in past two days) was ignited by the massive falls in GCC equity markets.
Simialr to what happened in GCC markets. A spike in Volatility made investors re-assess risk and head for the exit.

Mideast market fallout offset by strong oil price (FT)


Economist in the Middle East are warning that the fallout in the local stock exchanges will affect consumer spending. An estimated 200,000 - 500,000 Saudis suffered losses on the stock market. This is some how offset by the windfall in IPOs.
Comments: The scale of loss in the local markets is probably much larger add to that the cost of financing in regard to margin trading and IPOs. Investors that entered the market earlier are probably ok while the majority that joined later on would be more affected. Investors felt protected by high oil pries - but oil revenue does not pour back to investors as majority of the oil sector is strictly under governmental control. Goverments in the region are happy to create jobs for its citizen but do not pay dividends.

Sunday, May 21, 2006

EIIB raises GBP 75 million after an uncertain debute on AIM - ShareCast


European Islamic Investment Bank made an uncertain start to life on AIM. Shares lost more than 40% on first day. EIIB was able to raise GBP 75 million well below the GBP 200 million previously anticipated. Some GBP 60 million was raised through offer to existing shareholders. BNP Paribas acted as financial adviser to EIIB and global co-ordinator and joint bookrunner to the IPO.

Saudi Arabia, Total Sign Deal for $5-Billion Refinery

Saudi Arabia and French energy giant Total SA on Sunday signed a tentative deal to build a 400,000 barrel-a-day export-oriented refinery in the Persian Gulf city of Jubail, the kingdom's state-run oil company Saudi Aramco said.
Both Aramco & Total will have 35% stake each in the project with the remaining 30% offered to the Saudi public.

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Moodys warns of risk for Gulf banks


Moody’s has warned of systematic risk in the Banking sector in the Gulf. The rating agency points to rapid loan growth (25% on average for fourth year running) and possible asset bubble. Moody’s remain reluctant to award any upgrade due to the high exposure of the Banks in the Gulf both directly and indirectly to overvalued property and local capital markets.
Moody’s added that many of the Banks were not able to quantify the risk in their consumer and corporate loan portfolios.

Palestinians demand resumption in funding (FT)


Palestinian Authority (PA) warned of an imminent humanitarian disaster, likely followed by “an explosion of anger”, if funding for the Palestinian Authority was not resumed immediately. Israel continues to freeze funds destined to the PA.

King acts to calm Saudi investors (FT)

Equity funds tempt Arab world (FT)

GCC private equity is expected to continue its rapid growth.
Returns of regional private equity funds are nearly double those in US & Europe. Nevertheless, the performance of regional private equity funds will suffer as regional equity markets continue to suffer and the market appetite for IPO's weaken

Sunday, May 14, 2006

Emerging Nations Powering Global Economic Boom - Los Angeles Times

Developing countries like China, India, Russia and Brazil are increasingly setting the pace of global economies growth rather than US, Europe and Japan.
Of the 60 nations tracked in a recent study, not a single country is in recession, the first since 1969.
Developing nations are tearing away from G7 economies. In 1999, emerging markets grew by 3.8% relative o 3.2% of developed nations. Today, the growth rate of China (the largest emeging market) is set to grow by 10%.

Saturday, May 06, 2006

TASI Plunges By 7.03% on Heavy Speculation - Zawya.com

As mentioned earlier in Aswaq, markets trending down continues even with support from GCC governments. The Saudi Stock market plunged another 7% on Saturday. The largest maret in the GCC is now down by more than 43% from its highest level which was reached in Feb 2006. Extreme volatility is causing retail investors to head for the exit door.

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

NIOC, CNGCL reach gas sales deal - Khaleej Times Online

Crescent Natural Gas Company Limited (CNGCL) announced today that it has finally reached agreement with Iran's National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) on the supply of Gas. The deal came to thumbing halt after the Iranian Parliament earlier in the year insisted that all previous agreements to the supply of gas to the UAE company be based on market prices rather than being fixed at prices of more than 5 years ago.
This has had a negative affect on Dana gas share price - a sister company of Crescent Gas. Crescent gas declined to shed light on the new re-negotiated gas price. Some analyst are still pessimistic about the supply of gas from Iran to the UAE.